Predicción del ciclo solar 25 por el método combinado
Resumen
En este trabajo se ha pronosticado el perfil del ciclo solar 25 actualmente en curso mediante el Método Combinado, con una predicción del máximo de amplitud suavizada del orden de los 108.3±4.7, ligeramente inferior al ciclo precedente y con una duración promedio de la fase ascendente de 61±12 meses, para una duración promedio total de 132±27 meses. Se ha aplicado el mismo procedimiento a los tres ciclos inmediatos anteriores obteniéndose buenos resultados en la parte ascendente de los mismos.
Descargas
Citas
Helal, R., & Galal, AA. (2013). An early prediction of the maximum amplitude of the solar cycle 25. Solar activity and its magnetic origin. Journal of Advanced Research (EG), 4:275-278.
Hathaway, D., Wilson, R., & Reichmann, E. (1999). A synthesis of solar cycle prediction techniques. Amplitude of Solar Cycle 25. Space Physics (USA). 104(A10): 22,375 - 22,388
Hathaway, D. & Wilson, R. (2006). Geomagnetic activities indicates a large amplitude for sunspot cycle amplitude. Geophysical Research Letters, 33(18):1-3.
Hanslmeier, A., Denkmayr, K. & Weiss, P. (1998). Longterm prediction of solar activity using the combine method. Solar Physics, 184(6pp).
SIDC-SILSO. World Data Center- Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations, Royal Observatory of Belgium, on-line Sunspot Number catalogue: http://sidc.be/silso/datafiles.
Cugnon, P. (1997). Le sunspot Index Data Center World Data Center C1 for Sunspot Index, Ciel et Terre, 113(2): 67-71.
Podladchikova, T., & Van Der Linden, R. (2012). Kalman filter technique for improving medium term predictions of the sunspot number, Solar Physics, 397-416.
NOAA. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,U.S. Deparment of Commerce,on-line Geomagnetic Index Catalogue: https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/geomag/ indices/aastar.html
ISGI. International Service of Geomagnetic Indices, on-line Geomagnetic Indices catalogue: http://isgi.unistra.fr/isgi_refservice.php.
Fessant, F., Pierret C. & Lantos, P. (1996). Comparison of neural network and Mac Nish and Lincoln methods for the predictions of smoothed sunspot index. Solar Physics, 168: 423-433.
Gómez, J. & Doncel, F. (2020). Predicción completa del Ciclo Solar 24 mediante el Método Combinado. Reportes Científicos de la FACEN, 11(1):3-9.
Wu, S. & Qin, G. (2021). Predicting Sunspot Numbers for Solar Cycles 25 and 26. ArXiv preprint Arxiv:2102.06001 [astro-ph.SR].
McIntosh, S. et al. (2020). Overlapping Magnetic Activity Cycles and the Sunspot Number: Forecasting Sunspot Cycle 25 Amplitude. Solar Physics, 295:163. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-020-01723-y.
Susanta, K., Janardhan, P., & Ananthakrishnan, S. (2019). Another Mini Solar Maximun in the offing: A Prediction for the Amplitude of Solar Cycle 25. ArXiv preprint Arxiv:1910.03841v1 [astro-ph.SR].
Upton, L. & Hathaway, D. (2018) An updated Solar Cycle 25 prediction with AFT: The Modern Minimum. Geophysical Research Letters, 45:8091-8095.73. http: //doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078387.
Cameron, R., Jiang, J. & Schüssler, M. (2016). Solar Cycle 25: Another moderate cycle? The Astronomical Journal Letter, 823: L22(2) (5pp).
Richards, T. & Rogers, L. (2019). Long-term variability in the length of the solar cycle. The astronomical society of the pacific, 121:797-809.
Ivanov, V. G. (2022). Solar cycle 25 prediction using length-to-amplitude relations. arXiv preprint arXiv:2203.02028.
Kumar, P., Biswas, A., & Karak, B. B. (2022). Physical link of the polar field build-up with the Waldmeier effect broadens the scope of early solar cycle prediction: Cycle 25 is likely to be stronger than Cycle 24. arXiv preprint arXiv:2203.11494.
Lu, J. Y., Xiong, Y. T., Zhao, K., Wang, M., Li, J. Y., Peng, G. S., & Sun, M. (2022). A Novel Bimodal Forecasting Model for Solar Cycle 25. The Astrophysical Journal, 924(2), 59.
Derechos de autor 2022 Diego Benitez;José Gómez
Esta obra está bajo licencia internacional Creative Commons Reconocimiento 4.0.
.jpg)
